A Diplomacy of Crisis Prevention

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, over 4 million people have been killed in violent conflicts. Last year, there were over 35 million refugees and internally displaced persons around the world. Investments in development play a vital role in preventing future crises. Improved living standards and democratic systems are the best means to prevent conflict and instability. There is every reason to believe that investments in development can be every bit as effective as defense spending in averting conflicts.

Indeed, experts have found increasing correlation between poor development indicators and civil unrest. A variety of prominent organizations, ranging from the United Nations, to the Carnegie Commission on Violence, to the Congressional Budget Office, have looked at the factors that cause nations to erupt into civil war. While the methodologies used by these organizations in their studies varied, there was a remarkable confluence in their findings.

Those nations at greatest risk were characterized as sharing common elements:

• high infant mortality rates;
• rapid population growth;
• high population density;
• large youth populations;
• a lack of strong democratic institutions;
• a history of ethnic disputes; and,
• sharp and severe economic distress.

As the Congressional Budget Office study found, there is "a fairly striking correlation between economic malaise on the one hand and domestic unrest on the other."

Around the globe, the ground is extraordinarily fertile for more of the conflicts we have seen since the end of the Cold War. Clearly, the international community needs to do a better job addressing these fundamental causes of social unrest and underdevelopment.

Continued international investments in promoting both democracy and free markets in the developing world are vital. Historical experience shows the mutually beneficial relationship between economic growth and democratic political systems in the longer term. As the economic capacity of a country increases, political and economic power tends to flow to greater numbers of people. More prosperous citizens demand a larger voice in the direction of society.

The fact that advances in democracy and economic growth are closely linked provides one of the reasons that continued foreign assistance to poor countries can make such a difference.